Remember No Nextexl Cup Race This Week

That's right, no Nextel Cup racing this week. It's an off week for the gang. Meanwhile, the Busch series on on its way to Mexico City for the Telcel Motorola Mexico 200. The race will be held at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, a 2.786 mile track located about 15 minutes (by what? foot?, car? 747?) from the heart of Mexico City.The race will be televised by Fox on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Nextel Cup prepares for the UAW-Daimler Chrysler 400 from Las Vegas on Sunday, March 13. The Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been the site for Nextel / Winston Cup races. Mark Martin won the first race in 1988 followed by Jeff Burton ('99 and 2000), Jeff Gordon ('01), Sterling Marlin ('02) and Matt Kenseth ('03 and '04). Note: That's five out of seven for Roush Racing.

Kasey Kahne holds the Qualifying Record at 174.904 mph set last March, while Mark Martin holds the 400 mile (actually 400.5 mile) Race Record at 146.554 mph set in March of 1998.

Auto Club 500 - Our Report Card - Another C+

We have told you before that Fantasy Auto Racing is almost impossible to predict. We seem to prove that to ourselves each week. None the less, we are bound and determined to figure out a way. Each week we add more information to our databases, and refine our calculation routines. We made some significant changes to our Daytona 500 equations and tested them on this week's Auto Club 500. The results?

Of our predicted top 20, 11 drivers actually finished there. Four more did not finish the race (T. Labonte, Nemechek, Riggs, and Kahne). that leaves five more that did'n make in the top 20. The biggest disapointment was Jeremy Mayfield who looked to have the statistical talent to win this race. Mayfield finished 28th. The other 3, Kenseth (Predicted 4th / finished 26th), Vickers (7th / 21st), Kyle Busch (11th / 23rd) and Mike Wallace (20th / a not to far off at 25th).

Our most accurate picks: Jimmie Johnson (2nd / 2nd), Jamie McMurray (8th / 4th), and Sterling Marlin (18th / 15th).

As for the Crew Chief, well, she didn't repeat last weeks feat of naming the top three, but she still did pretty good. Four of her top ten picks finished there (Johnson - Predicted 2nd / Actual 2nd, Martin 5th / 7th, Kurt Busch 7th / 3rd, and Harvick 10th / 6th). Two more, Kahne and Waltrip, did not finish the race, and another, Jeff Gordon, was near the top of the pack until mechanical problems late in the race.

Her biggest dissapointments Stewart (1st / 17th) and Earnhardt Jr. (3rd / 32nd).

So it's back to the drawing board and overtime for Rocket Man as we work to bring you the best predictions possible. By the way, our coverage of the UAW Daimler Chrysler 500 from Las Vegas begins tomorrow.

StatLeader Predicted Auto Club 500 Top 20 Finishers.

We are still in the process of fine tuning our rating system, but based on the latest version, here are the top 20 finishers and their rating points for tomorrow's Auto Club 500 (does not take into account accidents or mechnical failure).

1. Jeremy Mayfield - 37.41
   
2. Jimmie Johnson - 36.22
   
3. Ryan Newman - 36.2
   
4. Matt Kenseth - 35.7
5. Dale Jarrett - 35.58
   
6. Bobby Labonte - 34.75
   
7. Brian Vickers - 34.652
   
8. Jamie McMurray - 34.650
   
9. Terry Labonte - 34.45
   
10. Kasey Kahne - 34.30
    
11. Kyle Busch - 34.191
    
12. Carl Edwards - 34.190
    
13. Joe Nemechek - 33.92
    
14. Mark Martin - 33.79
    
15. Greg Biffle - 33.64
    
16. Scott Riggs - 33.49
    
17. Kurt Busch - 33.02
    
18. Sterling Marlin - 32.88
    
19. Rusty Wallace - 32.82
    
20. Mike Wallace - 32.33

We'll see you after the race.

Crew Chief's Updated Predictions

The Crew Chief has asked that I post her update and she is on the road this weekend.

From the Crew Chief:

I am going out on a limb and make only one change in my original picks. I'm moving Tony Stewart to the top slot while bumping Jimmie Johnson to #2. This is based on Tony setting a new Busch Qualifying Recoed at the California Speedway this week. I realize that Johnson has the #8 starting position while Tony is back at #29, but remember, in the last 6 races at the California Speedway, a top ten starter has one only once (of course that once was Jimmie Johnson). I'm also keeping Dale Earnhardt Jr. as #3 despite his difficulty in the qualifying. He's just too dang good not to. So here are my revised top ten for the Auto Club 500.

1. Tony Stewart
   
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Lil' E
4. Bobby Labonte
5. Mark Martin
6. Jeff Gordon
7. Kurt Busch
8. Kasey Kahne
9. Michael Waltrip
10. Kevin Harvick

Nextel Cup Series Auto Club 500 Qualifying Analysis

The results of our statistical analysis are in for the tomorrow's qualifying runs for the Auto Club 500. In looking at these numbers, here is what to keep in mind. The values given are based on the driver's performance in previous qualifying heats at the California Speedway. The more races that a driver has participated in, the greater the accuracy.

The figures do not include 1999 starting positions as the qualifying runs were cancelled that year. The numbers you will see for each driver include the number of races, their average starting position for all races (except '99), and a value indicating the most likely range in which they will start (Starting Position Range or SPR). This is calculated using a consistency factor that we have mercifully omitted.

Remember, since this is only the second race of the season, the top 35 drivers based on the '04 Nextel Cup point totals automatically qualify. The drivers listed below are broken in to two groups, those that automatically qualify, and those that don't. Both groups are organized by average starting position best-to-worst. Note that of the 35 automatic qualifiers, only 31 are entered. These are:

• Kasey Kahne - 2 races, 3.000 ASP (Average Starting Position), SPR (Starting Position Range) 1st-5th. With only 2 races not statistically significant but his 1st and 5th starting position in the two races here is.
  
• Brian Vickers - 2 races, 3.500 ASP, SPR 1st-6th. Again not statistically significant. 6th place starting position last year's Auto Club 500 and 1st at the '04 Pop Secret 500 is almost as impressive as Kahne's.
  
• Scott Riggs - 2 races, 6.500 ASP, SPR 4th-9th. Same as above. Not quite as impressive at either Kasey or Brian.
  
• Ryan Newman - 4 races, 6.500 ASP, SPR 2nd-11th. Better statistical significance. Higher consistency due to 14th starting place in the '04 Pop Secret 500.
• Casey Mears - 3 races, 12.000 ASP, SPR 7th-17th. Minimal statistical meaning. Starting positions 11th, 13th, and 6th.
• Jeremy Mayfield - 8 races, 12.125 ASP, SPR SPR 4th-21st. Now we're talking. Maximum statistical meaning. Best overall average among those with a lot of races, consistency is so-so.
• Jeff Gordon - 8 races, 12.750 ASP, SPR 5th-20th. Same basic average as Mayfield but a little more consistent.
• Rusty Wallace - 8 races, 12.750 ASP, SPR 6th-19th. Same ASP as Gordon, but more consistent.
  
• Joe Nemechek - 8 races, 12.875 ASP, SPR 2nd-24th. Of the 48 entered drivers, this is one of the 8 least consistent.
• Mark Martin - 8 races, 14.375 ASP, SPR 6th-23rd.
• Jimmie Johnson - 4 races, 14.750 ASP, SPR 8th-21st.
• Kurt Busch - 4 races, 15.000 ASP, SPR 4th-26th.
• Tony Stewart - 6 races, 15.167 ASP, SPR 3rd-28th..
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 6 races, 16.167 ASP, SPR 6th-27th.
• Elliott Sadler - 6 races, 16.833 ASP, SPR 6th-28th..
• Jeff Green - 6 races, 17.833 ASP, SPR 5th-30th.
• Jamie McMurray - 3 races, 20.000 ASP, SPR 14th-26th.
• Greg Biffle - 4 races, 20.750 ASP, SPR 12th-30th.
• Bobby Labonte - 8 races, 21.250 ASP, SPR 9th-34th.
• Michael Waltrip - 8 races, 22.000 ASP, SPR 13th-31st.
• Dale Jarrett - 8 races, 22.500 ASP, SPR 9th-36th.
• Jeff Burton - 8 races, 23.000 ASP, SPR 12th-34th.
• Matt Kenseth - 6 races, 24.000 ASP, SPR 21st-27th.
• Terry Labonte - 8 races, 24.000 ASP, SPR 13th-35th.
• Kevin Harvick - 5 races, 24.400 ASP, SPR 17th-37th.
• Ricky Rudd - 8 races, 24.750 ASP, SPR 11th-38th.
• Sterling Marlin - 8 races, 25.625 ASP, SPR 17th-35th
• Kyle Petty - 8 races, 26.250 ASP, SPR 18th-34th..
• Ken Schrader - 8 races, 26.875 ASP, SPR 14th-40th.
• Robby Gordon - 5 races, 30.600 ASP, SPR 24th-37th.
• Scott Wimmer - 2 races, 38.500 ASP, SPR 38th-39th.

And the ones who will be fighting for the remaining slots:

• Bill Elliott - 7 races, 17.429 ASP, SPR 5th-30th
• Kyle Busch - 1 race, (18th)
  
• John Andretti - 6 races, 19.667 ASP, SPR 11th-29th
• Dave Blaney - 4 races, 20.500 ASP, SPR 14th-27th
• Jason Leffler - 1 race, (25th)
• Bobby Hamilton - 5 races, 25.400 ASP, SPR 18th-33rd
• Kevin Lepage - 2 races, 26.500 ASP, SPR 13th-40th
• Mike Wallace - 1 race, (36th)
• Randy LaJoie - 1 race, (39th)
• Hermie Sadler - 1 race, (40th)
  
• Kirk Shelmerdine - 1 race, (42nd)
• Mike Bliss - 1 race, (43rd)
• Stanton Barrett - 1 race, (43rd)
• Carl Edwards - 0 races
• Travis Kvapil - 0 races
• Stan Boyd - 0 races
• Eric McClure - 0 races

Three things to remember when using these numbers.

• First, the smaller the number of races, the greater the uncertainty.
  
• Second, these represent the most likely values and ranges, That doesn't mean that the drivers will necessarily stay within the ranges.
• Third, the '99 race was not counted in these values (it used the point standings for starting position). As a result, drivers that participated in this race will have one less race indicated than they actually ran.

We'll check back later to see how many of the drivers finished within our projected ranges. Good luck

NASCAR Auto Club 500 Qualifying

Tomorrow at 3:00 eastern the qualifying runs start for the Nextel Cup Series Auto Club 500. The new rules take full effect for this race. We will be posting a detailed analysis and qualifying forecast a little later tonight, but in the meantime remember that the following:

• Through the first five races, the top 35 drivers in last year's point standings automatically qualify. Positions 1-42 are based on speed while position 43 is a previous champion's provisional slot.
• The cars are impounded immediately after the qualifying is complete. Only minor adjustments are permitted and the cars must start the race with the same tires and amount of fuel with which they completed the qualifying.

Be Careful in Setting Your Fantasy Auto Racing Lineups

It is getting close to time to set your Fantasy Auto Racing lineups. Some games (notably Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing are requiring you to finalize you lineup by 5:00 PM Eastern. Since the Auto Club 500 qualifying doesn't start until 3:00 Eastern that certainly creates a problem.

We will be posting some qualifying data analysis along race projections over the next day or so. Keep checking back.

Crew Chief's Auto Club 500 Predictions - 1st Cut

The all-knowing and brilliant (not to mention lucky) Crew Chief is back with her projected winners for Sunday's Auto Club 500. Although the popular opinion is that Jeff Gordon will win, yours truly believes that the infamous Jimmie Johnson will emerge victorious.

Here are my projected top 10 finishers, for now at least. (I'll provide an update to changes I should happen to make as the week progresses.)

1. Jimmie Johnson
   
2. Tony Stewart
3. Lil' E
4. Bobby Labonte
5. Mark Martin
6. Jeff Gordon
7. Kurt Busch
8. Kasey Kahne
9. Michael Waltrip
10. Kevin Harvick

Why Jimmie Johnson? Two main reasons. First, he has a 1st and a 2nd in his four races at the California Speedway and Second, California is his home state, an extra incentive to do good. Like I said, this may change as the week goes on, especially once the qualifying runs are complete.

Speaking of qualifying, remembers that under the new NASCAR rules, the qualifying runs will not be held until 3:00 Eastern on Saturday. (To be televised on FX). Note also that StatLeader will post our Qualifying analysis tomorrow night.

Next NASCAR Nextel Cup Series Race - The Auto Club 500

How about that, getting all those search word terms in one title.

This weeks stop on the Nextel Cup Series is the Auto Club 500 from the California Speedway in Fontana about 40 miles east of LA.. The Speedway, built on the site of an old steel mill hosted its first NASCAR race, the California 500, in June of 1997. The Auto Club 500 was first run in 2003 and last year NASCAR made is first return trip to Fontana in the same season with the start of the Pop Secret 500.

As we head towards qualifying and the race, here are a few StatLeader analysis items to chew on:

• Winners: Jeff Gordon has won 3 of the 9 Nextel - Winston Cup races held here. Elliot Sadler, Kurt Busch, Rusty Wallace, Jimmie Johnson, Jeremy Mayfield and Mark Martin have won one each.
• No Poll Winner has ever gone on the win the race. In fact, in the last 6 races, only one top 10 starter, Jimmie Johnson (4th - 2002) has won. The others? 17th (Sadler - 2004 Pop Secret 500), 16th (Gordon - 2004 Auto Club 500), 16th (Busch - 2003), 19th (Wallace - 2001), and 24th (Mayfield - 2000).
  
• Best Starting Position Winners: 3rd (Martin - 1998 and Gordon -1997), 4th (Johnson - 2002), and 5th (Gordon - 1999).
  
• Weather: The Auto Club 500 is being run more than two months earlier than last year. That puts it into California's rainy season. Watch for rain to be a factor in this race as Southern California is having one of its wettest winters ever. (I can attest to this first hand). While the long range forecast calls for partly cloudy skies on race day, things can change quickly out here and rain is expected Monday or Tuesday.
• Driver Averages: While Jeff Gordon's 9.3 Average for all races places him 5th on the Average Finish Position list, if you take out his 37th place finish in last years Pop Secret 500, he moves into1st place with a 5.875 average finish position for 8 races.

Check back tomorrow as we will have some more Auto Club 500 race related items for you.

Why NASCAR Stats?

When StatLeader announced that after the close of Fantasy Football we were going to turn our analysis skills to NASCAR and the Nextel Cup, many of our members asked "Why?. It would seem only logical to turn to something like baseball where fantasy games have been around since the early 80's.

Certainly baseball (not to mention most other sports) is easier to predict than NASCAR. There really isn't a more difficult task than trying to predict performance in a sport where mechanical problems or a mistake by another participant can knock the favorite out of the competition in first few minutes of the game.

Take Dale Jarrett in yesterday's Daytona 500. He has the poll, he historically finishes above his starting position (not all drivers do), he has the fourth best record over the past six races on the Daytona International Speedway (behind Michael Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, and Jr.), the poll position has the highest percent of victories of any starting position, and what happens? The race starts, I reach down to get some chips, and when I look back up, Jarrett is well on his way back to 38th position. What a sport.

So why did we do this to ourselves? Why not choose a easy sport to predict? Simple. We love NASCAR, and it's not just the drivers, the cars, the excitement, and the festivities. There is something uniquely American about the sport. Much more so than America's Pastime (baseball) or any sport that claims to have "America's Team".

NASCAR embodies everything that good about America, start to finish. For example, how many other sports start off with a prayer? In this day of overreacting to political correctness it was so wonderful. to see a prayer given at the 2004 Nextel Cup Awards as well.

It's about the American values of courage, determination, and team work. Every week 43 drivers literally put their lives on the line. Yet at the same time never forgetting that they can not accomplish their goals alone.

Perhaps most of all, it's about respect. Respect for sport. Respect between the teams and drivers, and respect for the fans. No other sport makes itself so accessible to their fans or shows such appreciation to their fans. As much as we enjoy other sports, let's face it, NASCAR stands above the rest.

Our Report Card - C+

The 2005 Daytona 500 is history but the 2005 Nextel Cup Series is just getting started. As we head to the Auto Club 500, we at StatLeader want to look back at our predictions for this past week and evaluate them with the hope of improving our analytical methods. So, how did we do?

Of our top ten predicted finishers, 4 (Jr., Johnson, Stewart, and Lepage) finished in the top 10, 4 more (Burton, Waltrip, Kenseth, and Truex) did not complete the race. The remaining 2 finished 15th (Jarrett) and 24th (Rudd). We missed the boat on winner Jeff Gordon (predicted 17th) and 6th place finisher Mark Martin (predicted 30th).

Of the 25 racers who made it over 200 laps, our best: Greg Biffle (predicted 25th, finished 25th), Kevin Lepage (predicted 9th, finished 8th), Jimmy Johnson (predicted 3rd, finished 5th), Tony Stewart (predicted 5th, finished 7th), and Ryan Newman (predicted 22nd, finished 20th). Grade: C

We also advised you on who had a tendency to leave the race early vs. those who didn't. Of the six drivers we cited for early exits, five (John Andretti, Jamie McMurray, Ken Schrader, Mike Skinner, and Mike Wallace) did not complete this race either. Meanwhile, of the five we cited for not exiting early over the past six Daytona races, (Elliott Sadler, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Rusty Wallace, and Jeff Gordon) all five successfully finished this race as well. Grade: A and enough to raise the overall grade to a C+.

As the season progresses will be both increasing the amount of stat analysis and introducing league specific recommendations. Meanwhile, we are already working on our predictions for next week. Check back daily as we will also keep you updated on NASCAR events and information needed for your Fantasy Auto Racing success.

Crew Chief Picks Daytona 500 Winner, Top Three

Our resident motorsports guru correctly predicted Jeff Gordon at the winner of the today's Daytona 500. In fact, her top three picks all finished in the top 3. From her earlier post you may recall that she has Jr. second and Kurt Busch third. While they finished in the reverse order, it still was some great work by the Chief.

As for the rest of her picks:

• 4th place pick, Tony Stewart, finished 7th while her 5th, 6th and 7th place choices Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, and Jeremy Mayfield, finished bunched together at 22nd, 20th, and 23 respectively.
• 8th, 9th, and 10th place picks Bobby Labonte, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr. finished 43rd, 38th, and 34th respectively with Labonte out after 14 laps with mechanical problems, Busch only completing 148 laps, and Truex being involved in an accident after 178 laps.
  

Good job Crew Chief, looks like Mister2 and I owe you that first pint of ice cream.

Check back shortly for our evaluation of the StatLeader predictions.

Drivers Start Your Engines

The day we have been waiting for is finally here. You should still have a few minutes left to set you active drivers for your Fantasy League. Remember, The Crew Chief's projections are listed in the post below the official StatLeader numbers.

Daytona 500 Projected Finishing Order

Posted below is our projected order of finish in tomorrow's race. These results were determined using a variety of factors including starting order, track history, previous winner's starting position, and more.

Before we give you the results, there two things we must point out.

First: We do not take into consideration accidents or mechanical failure in these calculations. We acknowledge that these things exist, and in fact add some commentary concerning that at the end of the projected finish order. However, in evaluating each drivers performance, we feel that it is necessary to eliminate accident/mechanical failures that have unfairly skewed their previous performance. So, the results below would be the order if the race were run accident free and with no mechanical failures.

Second: We can't, nor do we try to claim that this will be the actual finishing order. The sport is too unpredictable for that. However, what our analysis does show is that, based on both current conditions and past performance, that the first driver listed has the best statistical chance of finishing first, the second listed has the second best, and so on. With that said, here are the projections.



* Indicates a Rookie

Now, we mentioned above that these figures did not take in to account accidents and mechanical failure. Realize that most drivers have to leave a race early due to accidents or mechanical problem. The Daytona 500 is no different. However, there are some drivers who stick out for either their lack of problems or excessive problems these drivers are:

No Early Outs (in the last 5 or 6 races driven at Daytona):

• Elliot Sadler, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Rusty Wallace, and Jeff Gordon

Lots of Early Exits (At least half of their Daytona races):

• John Andretti (3 of 5), Jamie McMurray (2 of 4), Ken Schrader (3 of 6), Mike Skinner (2 of 4), Mike Wallace (3 of 5), and Scott Riggs (1 of 2).

We wish you the best of luck in the first week of the Nextel cup. Check back prior to the race tomorrow for any late breaking information. We'll also be back after the race with a few thoughts and to see how we did.

Crew Chief Prediction - Daytona 500 Top Ten Finishers

Listed below are my choices for tomorrow's Daytona 500. Please note that the "Official" Statleader Projections will be posted shortly. Ladies and Gentleman, my prediction for the top ten:

1. Jeff Gordon
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr
3. Kurt Bush
4. Tony Stewart
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Ryan Newman
7. Jeremy Mayfield
8. Bobby Labonte
9. Kyle Bush
10. Martin Truex Jr

Why Jeff Gordon? Primarily because this is a restrictor plate race and Gordon does well in restrictor plate races. While a 15th position starter has never one the Daytona 500,10 through 14 have won 7 out of 62 Daytona races. Plus, Gordon has been on a bit of a streak at Daytona, finishing 8th in last year's 500, and winning the Pepsi 400. Note that 3 times in the last 6 years the winner of the Pepsi 400 and gone on to win next Daytona 500. ('98-'99: Gorden, '99-'00: Jarrett, and '02-'03: Waltrip). Add to this the fact that Gordon has won at Daytona 5 times in the last 10 years (20 races), he must, as much as it pains this Tony Stewart fan, be the choice to take the flag.

1 Day and Counting - Predictions Later Today

Only 1 day away. Time to set your Fantasy Auto Racing lineups. To help you out, StatLeader will be posting our predicted order of finish shortly. For those of you who have found us independent of our Fantasy Football activities, there are two main differences between our site and other Fantasy information sites.

First, we use extensive statistical analysis to provide you with our projections as to actual finishing order in the race. We all know how unpredictable a race can be. (Let's face it, if you knew who was going to win it wouldn't be interesting.) However, we believe that our methods will significantly improve your performance in your Fantasy League.

Second, the methods we use are statistically very advanced. Developed by our resident rocket scientist (Yes, a Real NASA Rocket Scientist). To do this we use all types of information including track history, driver performance, qualifying information and a whole bunch more.

Also, The Crew Chief will also be posting her picks later today. The Chief bases her picks, not on number crunching, but rather on her own experience as a racing analyst. So check back a little later today for both lists.

2 Days and Counting - Daytona 500 Lineup

We will bring you our predicted order of finish tomorrow but for tonight, here is the starting lineup for Sunday's Daytona 500:

1 #88 Dale Jarrett
2 #48 Jimmie Johnson
3 #15 Michael Waltrip
4 #20 Tony Stewart
5 #8 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
6 #31 Jeff Burton
7 #23 Mike Skinner
8 #37 Kevin Lepage
9 #12 Ryan Newman
10 #1 Martin Truex Jr.
11 #21 Ricky Rudd
12 #10 Scott Riggs
13 #97 Kurt Busch
14 #17 Matt Kenseth
15 #24 Jeff Gordon
16 #22 Scott Wimmer
17 #42 Jamie McMurray
18 #40 Sterling Marlin
19 #5 Kyle Busch*
20 #18 Bobby Labonte
21 #100 Kenny Wallace
22 #32 Bobby Hamilton Jr.
23 #16 Greg Biffle
24 #19 Jeremy Mayfield
25 #77 Travis Kvapil*
26 #43 Jeff Green
27 #99 Carl Edwards
28 #25 Brian Vickers
29 #41 Casey Mears
30 #29 Kevin Harvick
31 #49 Ken Schrader
32 #6 Mark Martin
33 #45 Kyle Petty
34 #01 Joe Nemechek
35 #0 Mike Bliss
36 #2 Rusty Wallace
37 #9 Kasey Kahne
38 #07 Dave Blaney
39 #38 Elliott Sadler
40 #11 Jason Leffler
41 #136 Boris Said
42 #14 John Andretti
43 #4 Mike Wallace

Did Not Qualify
44 #7 Robby Gordon
45 #09 Johnny Sauter
46 #192 Stanton Barrett
47 #155 Derrike Cope
48 #89 Morgan Shepherd
49 #13 Greg Sacks
50 #33 Kerry Earnhardt
51 #173 Eric McClure*
52 #152 Larry Gunselman
53 #66 Hermie Sadler
54 #34 Randy LaJoie

* Rookie

3 days and Counting, Crew Chief's Prediction, Driver Information, and More

Hey Ya'll (Thats some Southern talk I picked up since movin' to this here state called Virginia)

As part of our NASCAR coverage I wanted to provide you with information on each of this year's drivers. At the end of the list you will find my prediction for who be this year's Nextel Cup Champion. By the way, if I am correct, Mister2, you and the OLD Doc have to buy me a pint of my favorite ice cream!!

Here is your own personal index by Model as compiled from NASCAR.com
(Number, Driver, Sponsor, Team, and Crew Chief [I like the sound of that last one])

Chevrolet:

• #07 Dave Blaney - Jack Daniel's - Richard Childress Racing - Philippe Lopez
• #0 Mike Bliss - NetZero& Best Buy - Haas CNC Racing - Bob Barker
• #31 Jeff Burton - Cingular Wireless - Richard Childress Racing - Kevin Hamlin
• #5 Kyle Busch (rookie) - Kellogg's - Hendrick Motorsports - Alan Gustafson
• #155 Derrike Cope - Year One - SWAT Racing - Dan Glauz
• #8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Budweiser - Dale Earnhardt Incorporated - Pete Rondeau
• #24 Jeff Gordon - DuPont - Hendrick Motorsports - Robbie Loomis
• #7 Robby Gordon - Jim Beam - Robby Gordon Motorsports - Bob Temple
• #32 Bobby Hamilton Jr. - Tide - PPI Motorsports - Harold Holly
• #29 Kevin Harvick - GM Goodwrench - Richard Childress Racing - Todd Berrier
• #48 Jimmie Johnson - Lowe's Hardware - Hendrick Motorsports - Chad Knaus
• #34 Randy LaJoie - Mach One Inc. - Mach One Inc. - Mike Steurer
• #18 Bobby Labonte - Interstate Batteries - Joe Gibbs Racing - Steve Addington
• #44 Terry Labonte - Hendrick Motorsports - Hendrick Motorsports - Peter Sospenzo
• #11 Jason Leffler - FedEx Express - Joe Gibbs Racing - Dave Rogers
• #173 Eric McClure (rookie) - ARC Dehooker - Rabe Racing Enterprises - Tim Brewer
• #01 Joe Nemechek - The U.S. Army - MB2 Motorsports - Ryan Pemberton
• #10 Scott Riggs - Valvoline - MBV Motorsports - Doug Randolph
• #136 Boris Said - CENTRIX Financial - MB/Sutton Motorsports - Frank Stoddard
• #20 Tony Stewart - The Home Depot - Joe Gibbs Racing - Greg Zipadelli
• #25 Brian Vickers - GMAC - Hendrick Motorsports -Lance McGrew
• #4 Mike Wallace - Lucas Oil Products - Morgan-McClure Motorsports - Chris Carrier
• #15 Michael Waltrip - NAPA Auto Parts - Dale Earnhardt Incorporated - Tony Eury Jr.

Dodge:

• #43 Jeff Green - General Mills/Cheerios - Petty Enterprises - Greg Steadman
• #9 Kasey Kahne - Dodge Dealers & The UAW - Evernham Motorsports - Tommy Baldwin Jr.
• #77 Travis Kvapil (rookie) - Kodak & Jasper Engines - Penske/Jasper Racing - Shane Wilson
• #37 Kevin Lepage - Carter's Royal Dispos-all - RJ Motorsports - Billy Poindexter
• #40 Sterling Marlin - Coors Light - Chip Ganassi Racing - Steve Boyer
• #19 Jeremy Mayfield - Dodge Dealers & The UAW - Evernham Motorsports - Slugger Labbe
• #42 Jamie McMurray - Texaco-Havoline - Chip Ganassi Racing - Donnie Wingo
• #41 Casey Mears - Target - Chip Ganassi Racing - Jimmy Elledge
• #12 Ryan Newman - ALLTEL - Penske Racing - Matt Borland
• #45 Kyle Petty - Georgia-Pacific/Brawny - Petty Enterprises - Paul Andrews
• #13 Greg Sacks - Daytona Speed - Daytona Speed, Inc. - Paul Sacks
• #49 Ken Schrader - Schwan's Home Service - BAM Racing - David Hyder
• #89 Morgan Shepherd - Victory in Jesus & Red Line Oil - Victory in Jesus Racing - John Latchford
• #50 Jimmy Spencer - Arnold Development Companies - Arnold Motorsports - Unknown
• #2 Rusty Wallace - Miller Lite - Penske Racing - Larry Carter
• #22 Scott Wimmer - Caterpillar - Bill Davis Racing - Derrick Finley
  

Ford:

• #14 John Andretti - VB/APlus at Sunoco ppc Racing - David Charpentier
• #16 Greg Biffle - The National Guard - Roush Racing - Doug Richert
• #97 Kurt Busch - Sharpie & Irwin Industrial Tools - Roush Racing - Jimmy Fennig
• #99 Carl Edwards - Office Depot - Roush Racing - Bob Osborne
• #88 Dale Jarrett - UPS - Robert Yates Racing - Mike Ford
• #17 Matt Kenseth - DeWalt Power Tools - Roush Racing - Robbie Reiser
• #6 Mark Martin - Viagra - Roush Racing - Pat Tryson
• #21 Ricky Rudd - Motorcraft - Wood Brothers Racing - Michael McSwain
• #38 Elliott Sadler - M&M's - Robert Yates Racing - Todd Parrott
• #66 Hermie Sadler - Peak Fitness - Peak Performance Motorsports - James Ince
• #27 (or #172) Kirk Shelmerdine - Kirk Shelmerdine Racing - Kirk Shelmerdine Racing - Phil Harris

And Now for the Crew Chief's Pick for the 2005 Nextel Cup Champion.....Jimmie Johnson. I believe that after a slow start, Johnson will finish strong, win the cup, and a whole lot of money. If I'm wrong, well, racing is such an unpredictable sport. If I'm right, however, remember that you heard it here first.

One final thought: When I got the mail this afternoon, I saw a Jason-like (ala Friday the 13th) guy on the front cover of my latest racing magazine. Baffled and frankly a little bit frightened, I slowly began to read and (not to my suprise) saw the headline: JEFF GORDON. As I looked at the photo, I began to wonder what would happen if Freddy and or Jason saw this guy. Only one possible conclusion they would both scream in horror and run for thier lives!!!

Crew Chief (A totally impartial Tony Stewart fan)

P.S. I know that the Doc, Mister2, and Rocket Man are gonna get sick of my Tony Stewart ravings on of these days and set me up with the ultimate torture, a Face-to-Face interveiw with you know who.

4 Days and Counting

With only 4 days left until the start of the Nextel Cup Series we at StatLeader are getting ready to make our predictions for the Daytona 500.

For those of you new to StatLeader, we have built our reputation on providing some of the best most thorough statistical analysis available in Fantasy Football. With our sights turning to NASCAR, we will be using these same statistical tools to predict race order finishes.

Now we all know that predicting anything is sports is pretty hit-and-miss. But we firmly believe that our information will increase your odds of winning significantly.

For the first few weeks of the Nextel Cup Series, we will be posting our top-level predictions on this site. Eventually, this information and other statistical analysis products will only be available on our member pages (for a very reasonable fee).

So sit back and get ready for the new season. Now, as promised, our next Fantasy Auto Racing game preview:
Fantasy Cup Auto Racing Nextel Cup Edition. You can reach this game (and the other Fantasy Cup games) at:
http://www.fantasycup.com/

Cost: $99.95

Features: Live Reports from the Track, In-Race Scoring, Track History.

Prizes: Features Overall Season, Divisional Grand, Divisional Weekly, and Weekly prizes.

Overall:

• 1st Place: $25,000
  
• 2nd Place: $5,000
  
• 3rd Place: $2,500
  
• 4th Place: $1,000
• 5th Place: $500
• 6th - 10th Place: $250
  
• 11th - 25th Place: $100
  
• 26th - 100 Place: $50
  

Weekly:

• 1st Place: $500
  
• 2nd Place: $250
  
• 3rd Place: $100
  
• 4th Place: $75
• 5th Place: $50
• 6th-10th Place: $25
  
• 11th - 25th Place: $20
  

Rules: Pick 8 drivers and stay within the $10 Million salary cap. Driver's scores based on their Nextel Points. You can get a total of 8 trades. 3 are free, the other 5 cost five dollars each (there is a special buy 4 get the 5th one free deal). Private and public leagues are available.

Be sure to check the site for complete game rules, details and prizes.

5 Days and Counting

Tonight we continue our examination of Fantasy Auto Racing games with the Sports Fantasy League SFL500 NASCAR Racing Challenge. You can sign up for this game at:
http://www.sportsfantasyleagues.com/nascar/nascar.html

Features: Real Time Scoring, Pre-Event Scoring Sheets, and Special Awards.

Cost: $50 for the first team. $40 for every additional team. $2 per trade

Prizes: Each League (80-100 teams per league) pays:

• 1st Place: $1,000
  
• 2nd Place: $500
  
• 3rd Place: $300
  
• 4th Place: $200
• 5th Place: $100
• 6th Place: $50
  
• 7th Place: $40
  
• 8th Place: $30
  
• 9th Place: $20
• 10th Place: $10

Weekly and Double Weekly cash prizes along with special season prizes are also awarded.

Rules: Players pick a total of 12 drivers from 5 different groups. Your points equal the total NASCAR points earned for a given race by all 12 of your drivers. You can trade drivers at any time to try to improve your score, but remember, each trade costs you $2.00. You can own up to 3 teams in any given league.

A complete list of prizes and rules, is available at the site above.

Tomorrow: Fantasy Cup Auto Racing 2005

NASCAR Schedule

NASCAR Schedule - February 2005

02/12/05 Budweiser Shootout Daytona International Speedway
FOX/8 p.m. - Completed

02/17/05 Gatorade Duel 1 Daytona International Speedway
FX/1 p.m.

02/17/05 Gatorade Duel 2 Daytona International Speedway
FX/--

02/20/05 Daytona 500 Daytona International Speedway
FOX/1 p.m.

02/27/05 Auto Club 500 California Speedway
FOX/2 p.m.

6 Days to Go

With only six days remaining until the Daytona 500 we take a look at the Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing game. This game runs for the entire Nextel Cup season. You can sign up for this game by clicking on the following link:
http://racing.fantasysports.yahoo.com/

Cost: Free

Includes: Unlimited Roster Moves

Prizes: None.

Leagues: Create a Private League or join a "Fans of" Public League.

Rules: Drivers are broken into 3 categories A, B, and C. You select 2 "A" drivers, 4 "B" drivers, and 2 "C" drivers. For any given week, you pick 1of your 2 "A" drivers, 2 of your 4 "B" drivers, and 1 of your 2 "C" drivers. No Driver may start for you more than 9 times during the entire season.

Scoring: 90 Points to the race winner, 88 for 2dn, 86 for 3rd and so on. Bonus points for the top 4 qualifiers (10 for 1st, 5 for 2nd, 3 for 3rd and 1 for 4th). 10 additional bonus points are awarded for leading at least 1 lap with 10 more for the driver who leads the most laps.

Note: The season is broken into two halves (Daytona 500 - Tropicana 400 and New England 300 - Ford 400) but this seems more a technicality than anything else as there are no half season winners.

Check the site listed above for complete rules.

Tomorrow we will check out another prize game, the Sports Fantasy League SFL500 NASCAR Racing Challenge.

7 Days and Counting

With the Daytona 500 Qualifying Runs completed, we are only 7 days from the start of the Nextel Cup Series.

As we countdown the days, we continue with our Fantasy Auto Racing game survey looking at the Sporting News / Fox Fantasy Stock Car League.This game runs for the entire Nextel Cup season. You can sign up for this game by clicking on the link below:
Sporting News Fantasy Stock Car League
(Sorry, the actual URL is too long to fit here)

Note: Even though registration is supposed to be open, we have not been aboe to actually sign up for a team yet. You can submit your email for notification, but we don't know when you will hear back.

Cost: Free

Includes: 5 free trades, extra cost less than $0.83.

Prizes: Offers prizes totaling over $6,200. Prizes are broken into Manager and League categories.

Manager Overall Season Prizes (Highest point total at the end of the season)

• 1st Place: $750
  
• 2nd Place: $400
  
• 3rd Place: $150
  
• 4th Place: $100
• 5th Place: $75
• 6th Place: $60
  
• 7th Place: $55
  
• 8th Place: $50
  
• 9th Place: $45
• 10th Place: $40
• 11th thru 20th Place: $35
• 21st thru 30th Place: $30
• 31st thru 40th Place: $25
• 41st thru 50th Place: $20
• 51st thru 100th Place: $15
• 101st thru 200th Place: $10

League Prizes (For every league that has at least 12 teams)

• 1st Place: $75
  
• 2nd Place: $50
  
• 3rd Place: $40
• 4th Place: $30
  
• 5th Place: $20

Basic Rules of the Game: Pick 4 drivers, compete against the other 7 teams in your league.

Leagues: Public Leagues - 8 teams.

NOTE: This is a new game offered by TSN. There seems to still be a few bugs to work out. For example, TSN notes that you will be placed in an 8 team league, but their rules indicate that the league prizes are for 12 team leagues. We'll let you know more as we (or they) figure it out.

Check the site listed above for complete rules.

Tomorrow we will look at Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing.

8 Days and Counting

Our next Fantasy Auto Racing game to check is the Sporting News Ultimate Stock Car Challenge (Season 1). Note that Season 1 consists of 14 races and runs from 2/13/05 through 6/6/05. You can sign up for this game by clicking on the link below:
Sporting News Ultimate Stock Car Challenge (Season 1)
(Sorry, the actual URL is too long to fit here)

Cost: $14.99 (1 Team), $34.99 (3 Teams), $54.99 (5 Teams)

Includes: Scoring based on both the race and the qualifying runs. 1 free trade each week, extra cost less than $1.

Prizes: Offers prizes totaling over $44,000. Prizes are broken into Overall, League, Franchise, and Weekly.

Overall Season Prizes (Highest point total at the end of the season)

• 1st Place: $2,500
  
• 2nd Place: $1,500
  
• 3rd Place: $1,000
  
• 4th Place: $750
• 5th Place: $500
• 6th thru 10th Place: $250
• 11th thru 25th Place: $100
• 26th thru 50th Place: $75
• 51st thru 75th Place: $50
• 76th thru 100th Place: $25
  

League Prizes (For every league that has at least 12 teams)

• Top team owner wins: $50 - Can have only one team in the league
  

Franchise Prizes (Highest Roster Value at the end of the

• 1st Place: $500
  
• 2nd Place: $250
  
• 3rd Place: $125
• 4th Place: $75
  
• 5th Place: $50
  

Weekly Prizes

• 1st Place: $100
  
• 2nd Place: $50
• 3rd Place: $25
  

Basic Rules of the Game: You start with a mythical $50,000,000 to pick 6 drivers. Driver's salaries change throughout the season. You can buy and sell drivers as the season progresses to earn more money. You also pick a manufacturer (Chevy, Dodge, Ford or Pontiac). Scoring is based on performance by subtracting the drivers qualifying points (43 points for 1st continuing down to 1 point for 43rd) from the actual Nextel Cup points earned for the race. Manufacturer points are then added in. Highest point total wins. Remember, Season 1 runs through 6/6/05.

Leagues: Public Leagues and Private Leagues available.

Check the site listed above for complete rules.

Tomorrow we will look at the Sporting News / Fox Fantasy Stock Car League.

9 Days and Counting

Tonight we will look at the two free NASCAR games.

First is the Nextel Ultimate Fantasy League. Sign up for this game at: http://fantasy.nascar.com/games/league/splash.cfm

The second game is the Streak to the Finish. Sign up at:
http://fantasy.nascar.com/games/streak/splash.cfm

Ultimate Fantasy League

Includes: Draft format with Unlimited Trades and Transactions during the season.

Prizes: No Prizes Offered

Basic Rules of the Game: Each player starts with a mythical $100 to bid on 4 drivers. Three will be starters, on will be a reserve. Scoring is based on the Nextel Cup point system. Head-to-Head competition (two teams against each other, the one with the highest total points wins.

Leagues: Public Leagues (6 teams) and Private Leagues available.

***********************************************

Streak to the Finish

Prizes: Grand Prize (2): To tickets to the 2006 Nextel Cup Event of his or her choice. One Grand Prize goes to the player with the longest "Streak" for the season and one to the player with the highest point total for the season.

Basic Rules of the Game: Each week, select a driver from the list of "Available Drivers" who you think will finish in the top ten. If he does, you are on a streak and earn the drivers Nextel Cup points. You can only use a driver once on a current streak. After the first week, for each week that your "Streak" continues, you will get your drivers Nextel points plus a streak_length * 10 bonus factor. Once your streak ends, all drivers are available again.

Leagues: Public and Private groups.

Check the sites listed above for complete rules.

Tomorrow we will look at the Sporting News / Fox Ultimate Stock Car Challenge

10 Days and Counting

We continue our survey of Fantasy Auto Racing games with NASCAR Superstar Fantasy Cup Challenge. You can sign up for this game at: http://fantasy.nascar.com/games/nsscap/splash.cfm

Cost: $59.95

Includes: Live Scoring, Unlimited Preseason Transactions, and 6 In-season Transactions.

Prizes: Offers prizes totaling $87,700. Prizes are broken into Season, Segment, and Weekly.

Season Prizes

• First Place Overall Winner (1): $10,000
• Second Place Overall Winner (1): $5,000
• Third Place Overall Winner (1): $2,500

Segment Prizes (The season is broken down into 4 seven week segments and 1 eight week segment)

• First Place for Each Segment (1): $750.00
  
• Second Place for Each Segment (4): $500.00
  
• Third Place for Each Segment (5): $100.00
• Fourth Place for Each Segment (50): $25.00
  

Weekly Prizes

• First Place for Each Week (1): $500.00
  
• Second Place for Each Week (9): $50.00
• Third Place for Each Week (15): $25.00
  

Basic Rules of the Game: Pick 6 drivers and stay within an initial $125 salary cap. Additionally, a tiebreaker driver is selected (Tiebreaker Driver's points do not count in the team totals.). Once the drivers are selected, participants select a Superstar driver from the 6 drivers on their roster. A driver can be selected to be the "Superstar" only once per season. The Superstar driver's points for that race are doubled.

Drivers salary cap changes weekly based on their performance. Your salary cap will change by the sum of the change in your 6 drivers' salary. Scoring is based on the Nextel Cup point system. Highest point total wins.

Leagues: Public Leagues (15 teams) and Private Leagues available.

Check the site listed above for complete rules.

Tomorrow we will look at the NASCAR Ultimate Fantasy League

Daytona Pre-Race Show Lineup

The Daytona 500 Pre-Race show lineup has been announced. Performing will be:

• Country Music Star Clint Black who will perform his #1 hit "Nothin' But The Taillights"
• Brian Wilson who will sing the infamous Beach Boys hit "Good Vibrations"
• Recording artists John Ondrasik and "Five For Fighting" who will sing their #1 hit "100 Years"
• Actress/Singer Vanessa Williams will perform "America The Beautiful"

In addition, the show, which will be presented live on Fox, will feature thousands of cast members in what is sure to be a great start to the 2005 Nextel Cup Series.

11 Days and Counting

Today we take our first look at the Fantasy Auto Racing games that we will be following throughout the Nextel Cup Series.

Lets start with the NASCAR Fantasy Cup Challenge. You can sign up for this game at http://fantasy.nascar.com/games/cap/splash.cfm .

Cost: $9.95

Includes: Live Scoring, Unlimited Preseason Transactions, and 6 In-season Transactions.

Prizes: Offers prizes totaling $50,665. Prizes are broken into Season, Segment, and Weekly.

Season Prizes

• First Place Overall Winner (1): $5,000
• Second Place Overall Winner (1): Two gift certificates for the "Experience of a Lifetime" driving experience from the Richard Petty Driving Experience at a race track of your choice. ($2,500 value)
• Third Place Overall Winner (1): Four Tickets to a NASCAR Nextel Cup race of the winner's choice during the 2006 season ($500 value)

Segment Prizes (The season is broken down into 4 seven week segments and 1 eight week segment)

• First Place for Each Segment (1): $500.00
  
• Second Place for Each Segment (4): $100.00
  
• Third Place for Each Segment (95): $25.00

Weekly Prizes

• First Place for Each Week (1): $250.00
  
• Second Place for Each Week (24): $20.00

Basic Rules of the Game: Pick 6 drivers and stay within an initial $100 salary cap. Drivers salary cap changes weekly based on their performance. Your salary cap will change by the sum of the change in your 6 drivers' salary. Scoring is based on the Nextel Cup point system. Highest point total wins.

Leagues: Public Leagues (15 teams) and Private Leagues available.

Check the site listed above for complete rules.

Tomorrow we will look at the NASCAR Superstar Fantasy Cup Challenge

12 Days and Counting

With only 12 days left to the start of the 2005 Nextel Cup, here are a few things to look ahead to.

Actor Matthew McConaughey ("The Wedding Planner", "How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days") has been named the Grand Marshall for this year's Daytona 500 and will give the "Drivers, Start Your Engines" command.

Also, the new 2005 Chevy Corvette will be the Pace Car at Daytona this year. With a race track top speed of 186 mph, it is virtually identical to the production model. Painted millennium yellow, the Corvette will have a black racing stripe centered across the hood, roof, and trunk, along with the Daytona 500 logo on each door.

Meanwhile in preparation for the 2005 Nextel Cup, StatLeader will start our review of Fantasy Auto Racing game sites tomorrow. We'll tell you where to find some of our favorites, give you a brief look at the scoring systems, and, of course, talk about the prizes you can win for each league.

13 Days and Counting

13 days until the Nextel Cup opens with the Daytona 500 and StatLeader will be here for your Fantasy Auto Racing enjoyment from now through the last finisher at the Ford 400 in November.

Let's start out with a little pre-race fun.

Daytona International Speedway is planning a major celebration featuring major musical entertainers as well as thousands of local residents. The pre-race events will be televised on Fox.

Ashton Kutcher ("That 70's Show", "Cheaper By The Dozen", "My Boss' Daughter" and "Dude, Where's My Car?") will be the honorary starter this year. Kutcher, also plays a young man who tries to win over his perspective father-in-law by pretending to be a former NASCAR driver in the new movie "Guess Who" scheduled for release in late March. By the way, Kutcher is a big NASCAR fan.

By the way, if you are in the Daytona area and would like to be part of the pre-race celebration, go to www.jmbcasting.com or call 407-224-6621 for additional details.