Saturday, March 12, 2005

Using Our Projections + What We Are Doing

The StatLeader computer projections for tomorrows UAW DaimlerChrysler 400 will be posted shortly. However, before providing them we wanted to note the following:

Fantasy Auto Racing is differs from most other fantasy sports in that there is no positional requirement on your team. You simply try to pick the best 6, 10, 12 , or however many drivers are specified by your league. Some games try to inject the positional aspect by including categories (Category A, Category B, etc.) and requiring that you pick so many from each one to fill out your roster, but ultimately, you are still looking for as many top 10, 15, or 20 as possible.

The lists we provide is the computers estimate of who has the best chance of winning the race given no accidents or mechanical problems. From this list you can pick the top however many drivers you need for your league. Suppose you have to pick 6 drivers. Now, in reality, it really doesn't matter the order your picks finish in as long as they finish in the top 6 (unless there is some type of bonus system for picking the winner).

We have noted before that NASCAR is one of the most (if not the most) difficult sports to predict. Our initial season is a learning experience for us as well. We are continually upgrading our historical database, modifying our calculation routines, and developing new analyses methods to improve the accuracy of our forecasts. As the season progresses, we will be adding in more of our analysis numbers (consistency factors, confidence factors, and so on) to provide you with even more data on which to base your choices. Hopefully we will continue to improve so we can bring you the best Nextel Cup predictions available.

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