Nextel Cup Series Auto Club 500 Qualifying Analysis

The results of our statistical analysis are in for the tomorrow's qualifying runs for the Auto Club 500. In looking at these numbers, here is what to keep in mind. The values given are based on the driver's performance in previous qualifying heats at the California Speedway. The more races that a driver has participated in, the greater the accuracy.

The figures do not include 1999 starting positions as the qualifying runs were cancelled that year. The numbers you will see for each driver include the number of races, their average starting position for all races (except '99), and a value indicating the most likely range in which they will start (Starting Position Range or SPR). This is calculated using a consistency factor that we have mercifully omitted.

Remember, since this is only the second race of the season, the top 35 drivers based on the '04 Nextel Cup point totals automatically qualify. The drivers listed below are broken in to two groups, those that automatically qualify, and those that don't. Both groups are organized by average starting position best-to-worst. Note that of the 35 automatic qualifiers, only 31 are entered. These are:

• Kasey Kahne - 2 races, 3.000 ASP (Average Starting Position), SPR (Starting Position Range) 1st-5th. With only 2 races not statistically significant but his 1st and 5th starting position in the two races here is.
  
• Brian Vickers - 2 races, 3.500 ASP, SPR 1st-6th. Again not statistically significant. 6th place starting position last year's Auto Club 500 and 1st at the '04 Pop Secret 500 is almost as impressive as Kahne's.
  
• Scott Riggs - 2 races, 6.500 ASP, SPR 4th-9th. Same as above. Not quite as impressive at either Kasey or Brian.
  
• Ryan Newman - 4 races, 6.500 ASP, SPR 2nd-11th. Better statistical significance. Higher consistency due to 14th starting place in the '04 Pop Secret 500.
• Casey Mears - 3 races, 12.000 ASP, SPR 7th-17th. Minimal statistical meaning. Starting positions 11th, 13th, and 6th.
• Jeremy Mayfield - 8 races, 12.125 ASP, SPR SPR 4th-21st. Now we're talking. Maximum statistical meaning. Best overall average among those with a lot of races, consistency is so-so.
• Jeff Gordon - 8 races, 12.750 ASP, SPR 5th-20th. Same basic average as Mayfield but a little more consistent.
• Rusty Wallace - 8 races, 12.750 ASP, SPR 6th-19th. Same ASP as Gordon, but more consistent.
  
• Joe Nemechek - 8 races, 12.875 ASP, SPR 2nd-24th. Of the 48 entered drivers, this is one of the 8 least consistent.
• Mark Martin - 8 races, 14.375 ASP, SPR 6th-23rd.
• Jimmie Johnson - 4 races, 14.750 ASP, SPR 8th-21st.
• Kurt Busch - 4 races, 15.000 ASP, SPR 4th-26th.
• Tony Stewart - 6 races, 15.167 ASP, SPR 3rd-28th..
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 6 races, 16.167 ASP, SPR 6th-27th.
• Elliott Sadler - 6 races, 16.833 ASP, SPR 6th-28th..
• Jeff Green - 6 races, 17.833 ASP, SPR 5th-30th.
• Jamie McMurray - 3 races, 20.000 ASP, SPR 14th-26th.
• Greg Biffle - 4 races, 20.750 ASP, SPR 12th-30th.
• Bobby Labonte - 8 races, 21.250 ASP, SPR 9th-34th.
• Michael Waltrip - 8 races, 22.000 ASP, SPR 13th-31st.
• Dale Jarrett - 8 races, 22.500 ASP, SPR 9th-36th.
• Jeff Burton - 8 races, 23.000 ASP, SPR 12th-34th.
• Matt Kenseth - 6 races, 24.000 ASP, SPR 21st-27th.
• Terry Labonte - 8 races, 24.000 ASP, SPR 13th-35th.
• Kevin Harvick - 5 races, 24.400 ASP, SPR 17th-37th.
• Ricky Rudd - 8 races, 24.750 ASP, SPR 11th-38th.
• Sterling Marlin - 8 races, 25.625 ASP, SPR 17th-35th
• Kyle Petty - 8 races, 26.250 ASP, SPR 18th-34th..
• Ken Schrader - 8 races, 26.875 ASP, SPR 14th-40th.
• Robby Gordon - 5 races, 30.600 ASP, SPR 24th-37th.
• Scott Wimmer - 2 races, 38.500 ASP, SPR 38th-39th.

And the ones who will be fighting for the remaining slots:

• Bill Elliott - 7 races, 17.429 ASP, SPR 5th-30th
• Kyle Busch - 1 race, (18th)
  
• John Andretti - 6 races, 19.667 ASP, SPR 11th-29th
• Dave Blaney - 4 races, 20.500 ASP, SPR 14th-27th
• Jason Leffler - 1 race, (25th)
• Bobby Hamilton - 5 races, 25.400 ASP, SPR 18th-33rd
• Kevin Lepage - 2 races, 26.500 ASP, SPR 13th-40th
• Mike Wallace - 1 race, (36th)
• Randy LaJoie - 1 race, (39th)
• Hermie Sadler - 1 race, (40th)
  
• Kirk Shelmerdine - 1 race, (42nd)
• Mike Bliss - 1 race, (43rd)
• Stanton Barrett - 1 race, (43rd)
• Carl Edwards - 0 races
• Travis Kvapil - 0 races
• Stan Boyd - 0 races
• Eric McClure - 0 races

Three things to remember when using these numbers.

• First, the smaller the number of races, the greater the uncertainty.
  
• Second, these represent the most likely values and ranges, That doesn't mean that the drivers will necessarily stay within the ranges.
• Third, the '99 race was not counted in these values (it used the point standings for starting position). As a result, drivers that participated in this race will have one less race indicated than they actually ran.

We'll check back later to see how many of the drivers finished within our projected ranges. Good luck