Daytona 500 Projected Finishing Order

Posted below is our projected order of finish in tomorrow's race. These results were determined using a variety of factors including starting order, track history, previous winner's starting position, and more.

Before we give you the results, there two things we must point out.

First: We do not take into consideration accidents or mechanical failure in these calculations. We acknowledge that these things exist, and in fact add some commentary concerning that at the end of the projected finish order. However, in evaluating each drivers performance, we feel that it is necessary to eliminate accident/mechanical failures that have unfairly skewed their previous performance. So, the results below would be the order if the race were run accident free and with no mechanical failures.

Second: We can't, nor do we try to claim that this will be the actual finishing order. The sport is too unpredictable for that. However, what our analysis does show is that, based on both current conditions and past performance, that the first driver listed has the best statistical chance of finishing first, the second listed has the second best, and so on. With that said, here are the projections.



* Indicates a Rookie

Now, we mentioned above that these figures did not take in to account accidents and mechanical failure. Realize that most drivers have to leave a race early due to accidents or mechanical problem. The Daytona 500 is no different. However, there are some drivers who stick out for either their lack of problems or excessive problems these drivers are:

No Early Outs (in the last 5 or 6 races driven at Daytona):

• Elliot Sadler, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Rusty Wallace, and Jeff Gordon

Lots of Early Exits (At least half of their Daytona races):

• John Andretti (3 of 5), Jamie McMurray (2 of 4), Ken Schrader (3 of 6), Mike Skinner (2 of 4), Mike Wallace (3 of 5), and Scott Riggs (1 of 2).

We wish you the best of luck in the first week of the Nextel cup. Check back prior to the race tomorrow for any late breaking information. We'll also be back after the race with a few thoughts and to see how we did.